In 2009, the Mets need to find at least 4 more wins if they hope to dethrone the 2 time National League East Champion Phillies. They sured up the back end of their bullpen by adding Fransisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz but did they do enough?
Starting with the bullpen, the eighth and ninth innings certainly look more secure with Putz and K-Rod but what else do they have in the pen? They traded Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis away and have no other depth. Pedro Feliciano and Duaner Sanchez, who both had ERA's over 4, are the only solid candidates to fill out the pen. Sure Billy Wagner says he is coming back but can you really bank on that? The Mets will overuse Putz and K-Rod and still not have the bullpen they need to win.
The Mets starting rotation is adequate but also third best in the division behind the Phillies and Braves. Johan Santana is one of the top starters in the game and the 30 year old will be the stopper at the top of the rotation. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are both number 3 or 4 pitchers leaving the Mets without a true number 2 in their rotation. Oliver Perez is a number 4 or 5 while Tim Redding is a number 5 pitcher. The Mets have some depth this year with rookie Jonathan Niese and the low risk high reward signings of pitchers like Freddie Garcia and Livan Hernandez. Bottom line is the rotation should be good but below the rotations of the Phillies and Braves.
The story in New York right now is that Jerry Manuel is contemplating using Jose Reyes as the team's number 3 hitter. This would move Luis Castillo to the leadoff spot and cause the middle of the lineup to look like this:
3. Reyes
4. Wright
5. Beltran
6. Delgado
This is a nice middle of the line up and should produce some runs. Reyes is not a typical leadoff hitter and would probably better serve the team in the 3 spot. The issue is can Luis Castillo really still be a quality leadoff hitter? His legs only allowed him to play in 87 games in 2008 where the 33 year old only hit .245. Then, who hits number 2? The unproven Daniel Murphy?
When you look deeper at the Mets your realize this is a team with some really nice players but they lack depth. Both corners of the outfield and catcher are question marks at best. There is no bench to speak of. If a starting player gets hurt, there is no back up plan. Even the middle of the lineup is questionable as Carlos Delgado will be 37 and Carlos Beltran has had knee problems.
The Mets lack the depth to play a full 162 game schedule. They will be competitive and if everything goes perfectly for them they could win the division, but how often does that happen over a long season? My prediction for the Mets is that they will again be in the 85 to 89 win range and either barely win the wild card or just miss the playoffs.
For full coverage of the Turnpike Series, check out Phightin' Phils Phorum and Mr. Mets Daily.
